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S6IA00314
ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON Open seat
11.9
Influence Score · 2026
Substantially backed
Non-incumbent — only contributions, independent expenditures, and dark-money exposure are scored.
Lobbying, vote alignment, bundle timing, and trade direction require committee assignments and
roll-call records, neither of which exist for a non-sitting candidate. Maximum reachable score is
about 23, on a challenger-only scale — incumbents are scored 0–100 across all twelve axes, so the two
are not directly comparable. See methodology.
Score components
| Axis | Raw | Normalized (pts) | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct contributions | $9.14M | 8.00 | 2026 cycle, principal committee |
| Outside spending — direct support | $7.71M | — | PACs that directly supported this candidate |
| Outside spending — indirect (OPPOSE against opponents) | $1.53M | — | OPPOSE spending against opponents in the same race, attributed proportionally |
| Outside spending — OPPOSE against this candidate | $7.44M | — | PACs that spent to defeat this candidate (not scored on this axis) |
| Total outside spending in favor | $9.24M | 3.93 | direct + indirect — drives the outside-spending axis |
| Lobbying exposure | — | — | Requires committee assignment |
| Vote alignment | — | — | Requires voting record |
| Contribution timing — money arriving near key votes | — | — | Requires recorded-vote calendar |
| Dark-money exposure | 0.0000 | 0.00 | Disclosed-vs-dark outside spending share |
| Personal trade direction | — | — | Requires STOCK Act filings |
Race matchup IA Senate
| Candidate | Party | Status | Direct $ | Outside $ | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERNST, JONI K | REP | Inc. | $604K | $10K | 55.6 | Moderately exposed |
| ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON | REP | Open | $9.14M | $9.24M | 11.9 | Substantially backed |
| TUREK, JOSHUA | DEM | Open | $1.32M | $18.76M | 10.6 | Substantially backed |
| WAHLS, ZACH P | DEM | Open | $2.18M | $3.01M | 10.2 | Substantially backed |
| SAGE, NATHAN | DEM | Open | $408K | $2.77M | 3.7 | Modestly backed |
| NORRIS, JACKIE | DEM | Open | $267K | $2.77M | 3.2 | Modestly backed |
| SCHOLTEN, JAMES | DEM | Open | $123K | $2.77M | 2.6 | Lightly backed |
Challenger and open-seat scores reflect contributions, outside spending, and dark-money exposure only — a maximum of about 23. They are not directly comparable to incumbent scores, which run 0–100 across all twelve axes. Compare the dollar columns (Direct $, Outside $) for a like-for-like view.