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S4IA00129
ERNST, JONI K Incumbent
42.4
Influence Score · 2026
Moderately exposed
Sitting member — full twelve-axis v8 score available.
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Score components
| Axis | Raw | Normalized (pts) | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct contributions | $604K | 2.87 | 2026 cycle, principal committee |
| Outside spending — direct support | $0 | — | PACs that directly supported this candidate |
| Outside spending — indirect (OPPOSE against opponents) | $0 | — | OPPOSE spending against opponents in the same race, attributed proportionally |
| Outside spending — OPPOSE against this candidate | $31K | — | PACs that spent to defeat this candidate (not scored on this axis) |
| Total outside spending in favor | $0 | 0.44 | direct + indirect — drives the outside-spending axis |
| Lobbying exposure | $9.26M | 4.36 | Committee jurisdiction match |
| Vote alignment | 0.662 | 2.49 | Sponsor-aligned roll calls |
| Contribution timing — money arriving near key votes | 0.0156 | 3.15 | Receipts timed to legislative action |
| Dark-money exposure | 0.0000 | 0.00 | Disclosed-vs-dark outside spending share |
| Personal trade direction | 0.000 | 0.00 | STOCK Act buys in jurisdiction |
Race matchup IA Senate
| Candidate | Party | Status | Direct $ | Outside $ | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERNST, JONI K | REP | Inc. | $604K | $20K | 42.4 | Moderately exposed |
| ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON | REP | Open | $9.14M | $1.63M | 9.7 | Substantially backed |
| TUREK, JOSHUA | DEM | Open | $1.32M | $10.92M | 9.4 | Substantially backed |
| WAHLS, ZACH P | DEM | Open | $2.18M | $155K | 8.5 | Substantially backed |
| SAGE, NATHAN | DEM | Open | $408K | $5K | 1.6 | Lightly backed |
| NORRIS, JACKIE | DEM | Open | $267K | $5K | 1.1 | Lightly backed |
| SCHOLTEN, JAMES | DEM | Open | $123K | $5K | 0.6 | Lightly backed |
Challenger and open-seat scores reflect contributions, outside spending, and dark-money exposure only — a maximum of about 23. They are not directly comparable to incumbent scores, which run 0–100 across all twelve axes. Compare the dollar columns (Direct $, Outside $) for a like-for-like view.