STEEL, MICHELLE Challenger

· CA-45 (House)

8.3

Influence Score · 2026

Substantially backed

Non-incumbent — only contributions, independent expenditures, and dark-money exposure are scored. Lobbying, vote alignment, bundle timing, and trade direction require committee assignments and roll-call records, neither of which exist for a non-sitting candidate. Maximum reachable score is about 23, on a challenger-only scale — incumbents are scored 0–100 across all twelve axes, so the two are not directly comparable. See methodology.

Score components

Axis	Raw	Normalized (pts)	Coverage
Direct contributions	$5.68M	8.00	2026 cycle, principal committee
Outside spending — direct support	$0	—	PACs that directly supported this candidate
Outside spending — indirect (OPPOSE against opponents)	$2K	—	OPPOSE spending against opponents in the same race, attributed proportionally
Outside spending — OPPOSE against this candidate	$6K	—	PACs that spent to defeat this candidate (not scored on this axis)
Total outside spending in favor	$2K	0.05	direct + indirect — drives the outside-spending axis
Lobbying exposure	—	—	Requires committee assignment
Vote alignment	—	—	Requires voting record
Contribution timing — money arriving near key votes	—	—	Requires recorded-vote calendar
Dark-money exposure	0.0311	0.22	Disclosed-vs-dark outside spending share
Personal trade direction	—	—	Requires STOCK Act filings

Race matchup CA-45

Candidate	Party	Status	Direct $	Outside $	Score	Tier
TRAN, DEREK	DEM	Inc.	$830K	$9.98M	47.3	Moderately exposed
STEEL, MICHELLE	REP	Chal.	$5.68M	$2K	8.3	Substantially backed
VO, CHUONG	REP	Chal.	$221K	$4K	0.9	Lightly backed
FORDE, BRIAN	DEM	Chal.	$0	$4K	0.1	Lightly backed

Challenger and open-seat scores reflect contributions, outside spending, and dark-money exposure only — a maximum of about 23. They are not directly comparable to incumbent scores, which run 0–100 across all twelve axes. Compare the dollar columns (Direct $, Outside $) for a like-for-like view.