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H0CA08135
OBERNOLTE, JAY Incumbent
45.2
Influence Score · 2026
Moderately exposed
Sitting member — full twelve-axis v8 score available.
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Score components
| Axis | Raw | Normalized (pts) | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct contributions | $959K | 4.55 | 2026 cycle, principal committee |
| Outside spending — direct support | $0 | — | PACs that directly supported this candidate |
| Outside spending — indirect (OPPOSE against opponents) | $0 | — | OPPOSE spending against opponents in the same race, attributed proportionally |
| Outside spending — OPPOSE against this candidate | $0 | — | PACs that spent to defeat this candidate (not scored on this axis) |
| Total outside spending in favor | $0 | 0.72 | direct + indirect — drives the outside-spending axis |
| Lobbying exposure | $24.45M | 7.08 | Committee jurisdiction match |
| Vote alignment | 0.797 | 5.50 | Sponsor-aligned roll calls |
| Contribution timing — money arriving near key votes | 0.0432 | 8.75 | Receipts timed to legislative action |
| Dark-money exposure | 0.0000 | 0.00 | Disclosed-vs-dark outside spending share |
| Personal trade direction | 0.000 | 0.00 | STOCK Act buys in jurisdiction |
Race matchup CA-23
| Candidate | Party | Status | Direct $ | Outside $ | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBERNOLTE, JAY | REP | Inc. | $959K | $53K | 45.2 | Moderately exposed |
| CHAKALIAN, PAUL | DEM | Chal. | $31K | $0 | 0.1 | Lightly backed |
Challenger and open-seat scores reflect contributions, outside spending, and dark-money exposure only — a maximum of about 23. They are not directly comparable to incumbent scores, which run 0–100 across all twelve axes. Compare the dollar columns (Direct $, Outside $) for a like-for-like view.