GRONLI, NICOLE Open seat

· SD-AL (House)

0.2

Influence Score · 2026

Lightly backed

Non-incumbent — only contributions, independent expenditures, and dark-money exposure are scored. Lobbying, vote alignment, bundle timing, and trade direction require committee assignments and roll-call records, neither of which exist for a non-sitting candidate. Maximum reachable score is about 23, on a challenger-only scale — incumbents are scored 0–100 across all twelve axes, so the two are not directly comparable. See methodology.

Score components

Axis	Raw	Normalized (pts)	Coverage
Direct contributions	$60K	0.23	2026 cycle, principal committee
Outside spending — direct support	$0	—	PACs that directly supported this candidate
Outside spending — indirect (OPPOSE against opponents)	$0	—	OPPOSE spending against opponents in the same race, attributed proportionally
Outside spending — OPPOSE against this candidate	$0	—	PACs that spent to defeat this candidate (not scored on this axis)
Total outside spending in favor	$0	0.00	direct + indirect — drives the outside-spending axis
Lobbying exposure	—	—	Requires committee assignment
Vote alignment	—	—	Requires voting record
Contribution timing — money arriving near key votes	—	—	Requires recorded-vote calendar
Dark-money exposure	0.0000	0.00	Disclosed-vs-dark outside spending share
Personal trade direction	—	—	Requires STOCK Act filings

Race matchup SD-AL

Candidate	Party	Status	Direct $	Outside $	Score	Tier
JOHNSON, DUSTY	REP	Inc.	$1.08M	$595K	37.3	Moderately exposed
JACKLEY, MARTY	REP	Open	$1.29M	$0	4.9	Modestly backed
CRABTREE, CASEY	REP	Open	$227K	$0	0.9	Lightly backed
GRONLI, NICOLE	DEM	Open	$60K	$0	0.2	Lightly backed

Challenger and open-seat scores reflect contributions, outside spending, and dark-money exposure only — a maximum of about 23. They are not directly comparable to incumbent scores, which run 0–100 across all twelve axes. Compare the dollar columns (Direct $, Outside $) for a like-for-like view.